Can Islanders Repeat New Found November Success in 2015-16?

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NHL: Washington Capitals at New York Islanders

Islanders fans are already starting to feel one of the payoffs from last year’s renaissance 101 point season; it’s September, football season is starting, both baseball teams are in the hunt, but they can’t wait for the Islanders’ opening night which is less than one month from tonight, October 9th, 2015. Yes, regardless of how last season ended, it just feels good to know there will be a good young team on the ice that fans can continue to watch develop this upcoming season.

Some cynics are already out however. They’ve pointed at the fact that the Rangers are coming off two seasons that included a trip to the Stanley Cup finals and a Presidents Cup Trophy. They also hung their heads as the Pittsburgh Penguins (Phil Kessel), Washington Capitals (Justin Williams, TJ Oshie) and Columbus Blue Jackets (Brandon Saad, Gregory Campbell) made off-season acquisitions that should improve their teams immediately, while the Islanders, with the exception of the acquisition of new back-up goalie Thomas Greiss, seem like they will have a roster that looks like the one they ended the season with last year.

PITTSBURGH, PA - DECEMBER 15: Thomas Greiss #1 of the Pittsburgh Penguins warms up prior to playing the Tampa Bay Lightning at Consol Energy Center on December 15, 2014 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Daniel Kubus/Getty Images)

PITTSBURGH, PA – DECEMBER 15: Thomas Greiss #1 of the Pittsburgh Penguins warms up prior to playing the Tampa Bay Lightning at Consol Energy Center on December 15, 2014 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Daniel Kubus/Getty Images)

But Islanders General Manager Garth Snow believes the extra year of maturity his team has gained will be enough to improve his team. Snow told NHL.com, “We’re looking for our younger players to take another step in the right direction. Guys like Ryan Strome,Anders Lee, Brock Nelson…they’re all good, young players that had quality seasons and they’re just going to keep getting better.” Islanders country is hoping the “direction” Snow is referring to leads their team through the first round of the NHL playoffs for the first time in over twenty years and to the Stanley Cup finals.

The team will want to improve upon parts of its performance from last year. Special teams were a point of concern throughout the season. The penalty killing unit, which was close to the bottom of the league for most of the season did finish strong, killing 39 of its last 42 penalties, but for an entire body of work after 82 games only killed penalties at a rate of 78%. That was only better than four other teams in the league. The power play unit scored at an 18.7% clip but was absent during too many critical points of the season, for example the entire first round of the playoffs.

UNIONDALE, NY - APRIL 19: The Washington Capitals defend the net against the New York Islanders in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals during the 2015 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on April 19, 2015 in Uniondale, New York. The Islanders defeated the Capitals 2-1 in overtime. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

UNIONDALE, NY – APRIL 19: The Washington Capitals defend the net against the New York Islanders in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals during the 2015 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on April 19, 2015 in Uniondale, New York. The Islanders defeated the Capitals 2-1 in overtime. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

But some parts of last year’s strong season are going to need to be duplicated if the Islanders want to build on last year’s success. The Islanders were an insane 21-6-3 against Metropolitan Division rivals last year and one of five teams in the Eastern Conference to have 25 wins at home. Yes, they are making the move from Nassau County to Brooklyn, but the Barclays Center needs to feel like home immediately if the Islanders want to challenge for top playoff spots at the end of the season.

And what about the team’s new favorite month? November.

Regular season NHL games are actually played over the span of seven calendar months and each game within those months is valued at two points each. But the Islanders, and especially their fans, seemed to have reduced their playoff hopes to a simple formula.

Bad November = No Playoffs / Good November = Playoffs

Since there weren’t any NHL games played in November three years ago, when the Islanders made the playoffs during the 2012-13 lockout season, let’s take a quick look at the last two seasons to see to what extent the Islanders’ November performances have been representative of where they have finished in the standings.

After losing to the Penguins in the first round of the 2013 playoffs, expectations were high for the Islanders coming in to the 2013-14 season. The team would disappoint going 34-37-11 on the year, finishing third from the bottom in the Eastern Conference highlighted by a November in which they went 2-10-3. The team did improve over the course of the season and went 5-2-1 in April, but by that point it was too late, their November had sunk them.

Last season, Islanders fans were dreaming of a Presidents Trophy for much of the season until a mediocre March happened. The team won four of thirteen games going 4-6-3 in the process. With two red-hot teams in the Conference, the Ottawa Senators and Columbus Blue Jackets, the Islanders playoff position could have been in jeopardy, but the team was buffered by their outstanding November in which they went 11-3. Although top seeding was no longer a possibility, the team still settled comfortably into their third place position in the Metropolitan Division.

So in a league where every game played is valued at two points, is there any merit to giving such high importance to games that are played in the earlier months, like November. I believe… yes.

Fast starts are important in today’s NHL. With the point teams can gain for overtime losses it quickly becomes difficult to gain ground on teams that move up high in the standings by Thanksgiving. The wild card teams might see some changes, but early in the year it’s pretty safe to say that the Conference and Division leaders are at least going to the playoffs. By February and March they are just jockeying for position and can afford a few hiccups.

Why? Usually because of their strong Novembers.

So given the Islanders recent history and what we’ve been noticing in today’s NHL, let’s take a look at who the Islanders are playing this year in November and see if the possibility for another strong start is in the cards for their 2015-16 season.

First, let’s just look at the team’s  schedule courtesy of the Islanders website…
NOV 1, 2015 SABRES  7:30 PM
NOV 3, 2015 DEVILS  7:00 PM
NOV 5, 2015 @CANADIENS 7:30 PM
NOV 8, 2015 BRUINS 5:00 PM
NOV 10, 2015 @SHARKS 10:30 PM
NOV 12, 2015 @KINGS 10:30 PM
NOV 13, 2015 @DUCKS 10:00 PM
NOV 16, 2015 COYOTES  7:00 PM
NOV 20, 2015 CANADIENS  7:30 PM
NOV 22, 2015 @CANADIENS 7:00 PM
NOV 25, 2015 FLYERS  7:30 PM
NOV 27, 2015 @PANTHERS 7:30 PM
NOV 28, 2015 @LIGHTNING 7:00 PM
NOV 30, 2015 AVALANCHE  7:00 PM

Thoughts and Analysis…

It would be in the Islanders best interest to have another November hot streak because with fourteen games, it’s the team’s second busiest month after March this season. Nine of the fourteen games are against Eastern Conference opponents with a 7/7 home and away split.The Islanders don’t want to take anyone lightly and they won’t be surprising anyone this year, but teams that finished lower than the Isles in the standings like the Sabres, Coyotes, Panthers and Flyers are teams they should try to capitalize on early in the season. There’s a one-week three game west coast trip against the Sharks, Kings and Ducks from the 13th to the 20th. And perhaps the biggest anomaly on the entire Islanders schedule is that all three games against Carey Price and the Montreal Canadiens, a team the Islanders did not beat last year, happen over seventeen days in November.

Montreal Canadiens v New York Islanders

Montreal Canadiens v New York Islanders (Image courtesy of Getty Images)

Last year’s November schedule, when the Islanders went 11-3, actually had quite a few similarities. There were fourteen games, but with an 8/6 away and home split. The month started with a three game west coast trip in which the Islanders picked up 5 out of a possible 6 points. The Coyotes, Panthers, Avalanche, Panthers, Flyers and Devils were all on the schedule.

However the biggest difference is that last season the Isles played both the Capitals and Penguins twice apiece. In those four games they earned seven out of eight points against their two Metropolitan Division rivals. Yes, it was early, but both teams were looking up at the Islanders for much of the season as a result of those four November games.

This year, they don’t see the Penguins or Capitals at all in November, but instead will see, as already mentioned above, Price and the Canadiens three times. I know it’s a new season and rosters have changed, but given the success the Islanders had against the Penguins and how evenly matched they were against the Capitals, the three November matchups they have this year against the Canadiens may be enough to keep them a lot closer to the pack this year than what we saw heading in to December last year.

But hey, right now it’s still September and all still pure speculation. Maybe that extra year of maturity the team has gained will go straight to the November won-loss record and the Islanders will find a way to be 14-0 for the month.

My feeling however is that, although the Islanders will have a good season overall, Price and the Canadiens may slow things down a bit for this team in November. It’s going to take a little longer for the Islanders to get on top of the Metropolitan Division this year.

What are your thoughts? Will the Islanders be able to get off to a fast start again this year, especially when you consider their November schedule? Go ahead and comment in our forum section below.

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