This article is part two of five as the Islanders and the NHL get closer to solidifying their playoff chances, a collaborative effort between Reagan King and Jon Zella.
The New York Islanders return to Brooklyn tonight to face off against the Pittsburgh Penguins after going 6-1 on their most recent road trip. But the Islanders shouldn’t get comfortable, they head out on the road for games in Toronto on Wednesday followed by Boston on Saturday.
The last time we checked in, six games ago, there were 50 points on the table with 25 games remaining. In those six games, the Islanders collected 10 out of 12 points and, after beating the New York Rangers in a barn burner in Manhattan, have created some separation between themselves and the Penguins as well as the Philadelphia Flyers. The Islanders have games in hand on both of them (two and one respectively). In a pivotal matchup on Tuesday against the Penguins, the Islanders can solidify their chances even further.
So, what do the numbers say? Here’s the current landscape of playoff chances in the Eastern Conference heading into tonight’s games:
| Team |
PTS |
Chance to Make Playoffs |
SportsClubStats |
HockeyViz |
HockeyReference |
| Washington |
102 |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
| Tampa Bay |
82 |
99.40% |
99.70% |
99.00% |
99.50% |
| NY Islanders |
79 |
98.73% |
99.20% |
98.00% |
99.00% |
| NY Rangers |
82 |
98.67% |
99.20% |
98.00% |
98.80% |
| Florida |
81 |
96.93% |
98.50% |
95.00% |
97.30% |
| Boston |
81 |
94.87% |
96.90% |
91.00% |
96.70% |
| Pittsburgh |
76 |
84.67% |
84.60% |
87.00% |
82.40% |
| Detroit |
75 |
72.90% |
73.20% |
72.00% |
73.50% |
| Philadelphia |
73 |
43.97% |
40.60% |
50.00% |
41.30% |
| Carolina |
69 |
5.33% |
4.10% |
7.00% |
4.90% |
| New Jersey |
69 |
2.00% |
1.60% |
1.00% |
3.40% |
| Ottawa |
69 |
1.57% |
1.40% |
1.00% |
2.30% |
| Montréal |
66 |
1.00% |
1.10% |
1.00% |
0.90% |
| Buffalo |
63 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| Columbus |
62 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| Toronto |
53 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Eric Hornick, Islanders statistician, had the following analysis by the numbers to see what the team’s “magic number” is to make the playoffs,
“The Isles’ magic number to clinch a playoff berth is 29 (currently over Philadelphia). Any combination of Islander points gained and Flyer points lost will guarantee that the Islanders finish ahead of Philadelphia. Magic numbers against other teams: Carolina (23), New Jersey (21), Ottawa (21), Montreal (20), Columbus (16), Buffalo (15), Toronto (9).”
With 19 games remaining heading into tonight, and 38 points on the table, the Islanders would need to collect points in 15 games to make the dance. However, as Hornick mentioned, this number goes down if/when the Flyers lose (or don’t gain) points in their games. The Islanders and Flyers play one another on March 21st and, in what could be a very meaningful game, in the beginning of April.
The post Forecasting the Islanders Playoff Chances: Part II appeared first on Islanders Insight.
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